A majority of Americans in highly vaccinated counties now live in covid hot spots
Two-thirds of Americans in highly vaccinated counties now live in coronavirus hot spots, according to an analysis by The Washington Post, as outbreaks of the highly transmissible delta variant - once concentrated in poorly vaccinated pockets - ignite in more populated and immunized areas.
The Post analysis illustrates how rapidly the state of the pandemic changed in July from a problem for the unvaccinated to a nationwide concern.
The Post classified the highest top quarter of counties as high vaccination, with at least 54% of the population fully vaccinated. The lowest quarter of counties were classified as low vaccination, with fewer than 40% of the population fully vaccinated. The CDC identifies hot spots as areas with high and rising caseloads, as compared with areas with moderate or low covid-19 outbreaks.
On the Fourth of July, just four percent of residents of highly vaccinated communities lived in hot spots, compared with 13% of people in low-vaccination areas. The outbreaks initially grew in the poorly vaccinated areas, where 28% of residents lived in hot spots as of July 14, compared with 13% of residents in highly vaccinated communities.
The gap narrowed in recent weeks as cases surged in major West Coast cities, South Florida urban centers and the New York-to-Boston corridor. By August, it closed. About two-thirds of residents living in both highly and poorly vaccinated counties are now in hot spots with high and rising caseloads.
Oregon is seeing such differences as hospitalizations reach all-time highs and Portland, in a county where two-thirds are fully vaccinated, is a hot spot alongside sparsely vaccinated rural counties.
Breakthrough infections do not appear to be as extremely rare as hoped, accounting for more than a fifth of new recent infections in Los Angeles; New Haven, Conn.; and Oregon, officials said.
"Don't think just because your county and your city is well vaccinated that this can't affect you," said Jennifer Avegno, director of the New Orleans Department of Health. "Do the things you need to do, particularly with schools returning and large festivals happening. Get ready. I hope you are spared, but we didn't think it would be this bad."
Louisiana, where less than 38% of residents are fully vaccinated, is confronting the nation's worst surge with 120 new daily cases per 100,000 residents. In Orleans Parish, home to New Orleans, 53 percent of residents have been fully vaccinated, but it has still been pummeled during the surge, with 89 new daily infections per 100,000 residents.
Residents of Orleans Parish have a lower hospitalization rate at 16 per 100,000 versus statewide at 46 per 100,000, according to Covid Act Now data cited by local health officials.
While the city doesn't have reliable data on the prevalence of breakthrough infections, officials suspect they may be common.
Recent Centers for Disease Control and Prevention study of an outbreak in Provincetown, Mass. where three-quarters of the infected were fully vaccinated, bolstering suspicions vaccinated people are more easily spreading the transmissible delta variant even in vaccinated communities. More than 1,000 people were infected; seven were hospitalized.
The study raised concerns among public health officials in highly vaccinated communities about immunized people spreading the virus to vulnerable people, including children under 12, who are not eligible for vaccines.
Los Angeles County was one of the first to recognize that risk when it urged all residents to wear masks in late June and imposed an indoor mask mandate in mid-July, even though 61% of eligible people were fully vaccinated at the time.
Officials cited data from Israel suggesting vaccinated people may be spreading the highly contagious delta variant. Their fears appeared to be well founded: A quarter of July infections were among fully vaccinated people.
"When you don't know something or don't know something well, we learned the lesson with covid is you are better off being cautious," said Barbara Ferrer, director of the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health.
Severe illness among them was rare, with the vaccinated making up about 12% of hospitalizations in late July.
Los Angeles County health officials credit the universal masking order for helping to control the latest surge, citing slower case growth than in parts of California without mask mandates.
The CDC last week dubbed New Haven the first Connecticut jurisdiction at high risk for transmission even though it is 62% fully vaccinated. Of the 624 New Haven cases reviewed since July, 22% were fully vaccinated. Health Director Maritza Bond said preliminary data suggests the breakthrough cases are disproportionately among senior citizens and people with preexisting medical conditions that would make it harder for their immune systems to fight the virus, even after vaccination.
The city quickly imposed an indoor mask mandate that took effect this week ahead of vaccinated Yale University students returning to campus later this month.
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